Rare Coin Values Index

The Rare Coin Values Index follows the percent change movements of 87 carefully selected United States coins. The purpose of the Index is to assess the overall direction of the U.S. rare coin market over a period beginning in January 2000 to the current month.

Rare Coin Values Index: Since Year 2000

The chart above graphs the combined percent change in retail prices for 87 rare United States coins since January 2000, starting at an index baseline of 100. The purpose of the Index is to estimate the direction and strength of the market for rare United States coins. The coin market was very strong from 2003-09, reaching its peak in March/April 2009 at an Index rating of 370.51. For the next dozen years or so, the Index continued to move higher, albeit at a much slower pace, not breaching the 400-point level until late 2017. The Index in 2022 is now increasing at an accelerated pace, exceeding anything we’ve seen in years, and has popped the 500 point plateau for the first time. See chart below for blow up of Index movements over the last 12 months.

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The next Rare Coin Values Index chart focuses on the last 12 months. It is generated from the same body of data as the chart above, except it's "blown up" to give the reader a closer view of the most recent coin market activity.
 

Rare Coin Values Index: Over Last 12 Months

This chart is a close up of the most recent 12 months of Rare Coin Values Index activity. As we move through Q4 2022, the coin market steadfastly continues to enjoy gains. In November, the Index crept higher by 2.43 points to a record level 500.56. There are indicators we have entered a bull market environment: A new all-time Index high has been achieved for 13 consecutive months. Over this time, the Index has risen by 65.44 points, or 15.0%. The good news about this positive Index direction is that no one is talking about a “bubble” popping, as what occurred in the late 1970s and again in the late 1980s, following a ridiculously fast run up in coin prices, and much of that was built on false premises. Today, the rare coin market is strong and stable, and appears to be building momentum. The Rare Coin Value Index is based on the combined percent change in retail prices for 87 rare United States coins and is updated monthly.

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How is the Index calculated?

Once a month, for each coin in the Index, the current retail value is estimated and compared to the previous month's estimated value, and a percent difference is computed (it could be positve, negative, or no change). The percent difference for all 87 coins are added together and divided by 87 to come up with an average percent difference of the entire group. Thus, each coin in the Index carries equal weight. Let's call this result the Current Month Index, or CMI. The previous month's Index score is multiplied by (1+CMI) to arrive at an updated Index score.

How should I interpret the Index score?

You should interpret the Index score as a percent change in value collectively of the 87 coins that comprise the Index, which were chosen to represent the rare U.S. coin market as a whole. The Index begins in January 2000 at a baseline score of 100. Since, for example, the Index reached 500 in November 2022, you could say overall the prices of rare U.S. coins quintupled over that nearly 23 year period. In November 2022, the Index stands at 500.56, indicating the rare coin market as a whole is about 5.01 times higher than it was in January 2000.

Where does the value data come from?

We obtain coin values to input into the Index computation from a variety of widely respected coin price guides.

How were the 87 coins in the Index chosen?

Our objective was to choose a cross section of coins whose value fluctuations represented that of the overall market for rare United States coins. We focused on key dates the serious collector of average to above average means commonly aspires to own. The vast majority of coins tracked in the Index are in circulated grades, typical of the examples residing within the holdings of the rank and file collector. There are no ultra rarieties in the Index.

Which coins were chosen for the Index?

Meet the 87 coins that comprise the Rare Coin Values Index: