As many of you may know, "Sleeper coin" is a term used
to describe a
coin temporarily priced below its true market value, positioned to
someday rise significantly in price to properly realign (or establish)
itself in relation to its scarcity, relative to demand.
Bargain hunt collectors spend their days and nights
Sleeper coins. To them, happiness is finding a bona fide rare coin at a
discounted price, just like the jingle goes... "to a smoker, it's a Kent" [us Baby
Boomers get it -- you Gen X'ers and Millennials can click the link or
The problem most Sleeper coin seekers run into is how do they know when they've found a coin temporarily depressed in selling price? Without value trend data from the past, the selling price of today cannot be put in historical context.
Is it a bargain or not compared to a few years ago? Is this a coin with a long track record of proven popularity with collectors? Is now the time to make a purchase or look for bargains elsewhere?
So the overall perplexing question is...
How do I recognize a Key Date that's lost some of its shine, for now?
In other words...
Fortunately, thanks to my many years of numismatic value trend research, I have the scoop on elusive Sleeper coins. Because I keep so much data on historical coin value trends, I know how to recognize a Sleeper coin when I see one. That's why I've produced the Sleeper Coin Report.
How did I find coins to spotlight in the Sleeper Coin Report?
The best way to illustrate how to spot a Sleeper coin
nugget is by way of example. Consider the 1875-CC Twenty Cent coin.
Let's review price trend data for a properly graded 1875-CC Twenty Cent coin in Good-4 condition from 1950 to 2016. (Note: the numerical appendage -4 didn't exist back in 1950, but let's save that for another time):
Twenty Cent Piece
|Year||Est. Retail Value
As the above data demonstrates, the 1875-CC Twenty
Cent in Good condition was worth $1.25 in 1950. Today, the same coin
retails for about
$350. That computes to a 8.91% compounded annual rate of increase over
a 66 year period, which, as any financial analyst will confirm, is
very, very nice.
A similar scenario prevails over other lengthy time horizons as well. Let's say you purchased the 1875-CC in Good condition in 1990 for $50.00. To reach its current price tag of $350, it would have to increase at an annualized rate of 7.77%. Pretty darn good!
The impressive record is not limited to the Good condition specimen. The same can be said for the 1875-CC across the grade spectrum. For example, the 1875-CC in Extremely Fine condition was valued at about $8.00 in 1950. It's retail value in 2016 of approximately $1100 translates to an annual percentage increase of 7.75%.
The first important point of this example is this:
the 1875-CC Twenty Cent is a favored collectible coin with the numismatic community, due to its veritable scarcity and historical significance. It has a long trail of price hikes to brag about. By comparison, common date coins advance in value at a much slower rate, especially if their precious metals influence is removed from the calculation. For example, the much more common 1875-S Twenty Cent has advanced at an annual rate barely above 3.00% since 1990.
And the second important point is...
As popular as the 1875-CC Twenty Cent has been for a very long time, it has dipped in value considerably in recent years. Between 2008 and 2013, the value of a Good-4 example topped out at $425. The same coin can be purchased in 2016 for around $350, at a discount of almost 20% from its all-time high.
The 1875-CC Twenty Cent isn't the only rare United
States coin that has lost a little bit of steam lately. On the chart
below, the red line in an indicator of the overall health of the U.S.
rare coin market since the year 2000. It is an index based on the price
movements of 87 representative collectible United States coins, ranging
from the half cent to $20 double eagles. After you're done here, we
encourage you to read more about the Rare Coin Values Index.
In the last 4-5 years, the market has mostly moved sideways (June 2016 update: The Index has been creeping upward this year, but we're certainly not in a bull market for rare coins... yet). Many key date rare coins tracked in the Index have continued their ascent during this time, but the overall market has been stuck in neutral, meaning some key date coins have actually lost some value during this time to counter upward momentum of the positive Index coins.
I've ran the data and I've found a bunch of key date United States rare coins (34, to be exact) that have fallen in value lately, but remain undergirded by a solid collector base. The recent market softness presents an opportunity for the bargain seeker...
These are the elusive Sleeper coins. For the time being, they're priced below where they should be, a situation that will eventually correct itself.
Let me describe precisely how a coin made my Sleeper Coin Report list:
My name is Daniel J. Goevert. I've been a devoted coin
nearly 50 years. When other kids were shooting baskets in the driveway,
I was at the kitchen table with my #2 pencil, Big Chief tablet and
slide rule, creating charts and tables detailing coin price
Back in 1985, I started publishing coin value trend data and percentage gain and loss analyses for United States coins.
In 2003, I started my website, US Coin Values Advisor, for the purpose of presenting my research online. Since then, I've posted tons of trend data out in cyberspace.
How is the Sleeper Coin data presented?
For each and every coin presented in the Sleeper
Report, there is a chart illustrating price movements since
followed up by a table highlighting key data points in the chart, along
with an analysis of percentage gain over long periods of time. Of
critical importance is a computation showing how far the coin has
fallen in value since its All-Time High. Everything in the actual
report is shown bigger than the sample below, so you won't have to
squint like you're doing now (my apologies, but I couldn't get it to
fit here any other way). There are also high quality
obverse and reverse coin images.
The "Sleeper Coin Report" is Ready for
You Can Have It In Your Hands In Minutes.
If you're still reading this far down the page, that means you probably understand the upside potential of Sleeper Coins. So here are the nuts and bolts of what you need to know next:
Best of all, the Report is yours... for just $9.95
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IMHO, the Sleeper Coin Report is worth far more than
ten bucks, because it is one of the few tools available to help coin
collectors find honest-to-goodness rare coins selling temporarily below
their normal levels. A collector could save hundreds, if not thousands
However, I know from past experience there is a great deal of resistance from buyers toward any type of online report priced above ten dollars, hence, the gimmicky price of $9.95.
It is my goal to sell a few reports here and there to justify the enormous effort required to keep this site up and running, so pricing it just below $10 is my best hope.
I'm confident you will be happy with this report. However, if it does not meet your expectations, we offer an unconditional, no-questions-asked, 30-Day full refund.
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