Is This 1793 Cent a Sleeper Coin?

One important reason collectors visit my site, US Coin Values Advisor, is to study long term value trends for individual coins, in hope of data mining elusive sleeper coins.

As most experienced collectors know, "sleeper coin" is a slang term describing a coin temporarily priced below its true market value, positioned to someday rise significantly in price to properly realign (or establish for the first time) itself in relation to its scarcity, relative to demand.

Collectors seek out sleeper coins for the same reason shoppers shove their way into retail stores on Black Friday: Everyone loves a bargain.

There are various explanations as to why sleeper coin opportunities exist, but let's save that for another time.

One particular date that so happens to also be one of my favorites may well be at this time a sleeper coin: the 1793 Chain AMERI. Flowing Hair Large Cent.

Coin Photos courtesy of Heritage Auction Galleries

Historically, this coin is one of the most important dates in numismatics, as it was the very first United States coin released for general circulation.

Its birthplace was the first U.S. Mint facility, built in 1792 at the corner of Filbert and Seventh in Philadelphia. The three story building closest to the intersection was the most visible structure of the early Mint and is romanticized today as "Ye Olde Mint". It remained in existence until it was demolished in 1911.

Even as far back as 150 years ago, coin scholars noted the importance of the 1793 Chain AMERI. Large Cent.

Since then, it has been a cherished key date in American numismatics. Its twin sibling, the 1793 Chain AMERICA Large Cent, is held in similarly high esteem.

Together, a total of 36,103 were minted, of which it is estimated that only between 1% and 2% survive today.

Rare and highly sought, the 1793 Chain AMERI. Large Cent has a long track record of impressive price performance. Consider the value of a Good-4 specimen from 1950 to the present:

As the table above demonstrates, the 1793 Chain AMERI. Flowing Hair Large Cent in Good-4 condition was worth about $50.00 in 1950. Today, it is valued at around $10,000. If this were an investment vehicle, you could say it grew at an annual rate of 8.49% over a period of 65 years. Now that is one heckuva record!

It's no accident or passing fad that this coin has done so well for so long. As mentioned, it is a truly scarce key date United States coin that collectors really, really want to own. That is the bedrock strength propelling this coin forward. Always has been, and always will be.

But if you look carefully at the price data above, you'll note this coin was selling in the $15,000 range in 2006. (For those of you keeping score at home, that was an annual growth rate of 10.72% from 1950 over a 56 year period.) Since then, it has lost one-third of its value.

While prices for the 1793 Chain cent have been softening since 2006, the overall rare U.S. coin market has continued to move upward, as the chart below illustrates: