The Rare Coin Values Index follows the percent
change movements of 87 carefully selected United
States coins. The purpose of the Index is to assess the overall
direction of the U.S.
rare coin market over a period beginning in January 2000 to the current
Rare Coin Values Index: Since Year 2000
The chart above graphs the combined percent change in retail
for 87 rare United States coins since
January 2000, starting at an index baseline of 100. The coin market was
strong throughout that entire decade, reaching its peak in March and
April 2009 at an index rating of 370.51. The Index stumbled a bit in
2009-10, but battled back in 2011-12 and again in 2014 to barely
eclipse previous highs. The year 2015 was a slight downer, while 2016
was an UP year, finally breaking into record territory
in September. The high water mark was reached in December 2016, when
the Index hit 396.98. As we move through 2017, the Index has drifted
tad, with the first positive month not coming until May, with little
movement since. July score inched upward 0.32 points to 394.81. See
chart below for blow up of Index
movements over the last 12 months.
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The next Rare Coin Values Index chart focuses on
last 12 months. It is generated from the same body of data as the
chart above, except it's "blown up" to give the reader a closer view of
the most recent coin market activity.
Rare Coin Values Index: Over Last 12 Months
chart is a close up of the most recent 12 months of Rare Coin Values
Index activity. Since September 2016, the Index has moved along in a
very narrow band of 3.62 points, so there has not been much
movement one way or the other for almost a year. Long periods of
stability have been the norm for the Index since the Autumn of 2009,
when the historic rare coin bull market of 2003-09 came to a halt (you can see it in the chart above).
Rare Coin Value Index
is based on the combined percent
change in retail prices for 87 rare United States
coins and is updated monthly.
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How is the Index calculated?
Once a month, for each coin in the Index, the
current retail value is
estimated and compared to the previous month's estimated value, and a
percent difference is computed (it could be positve, negative, or no
change). The percent difference for all 87 coins are added together and
divided by 87 to come up with an average percent difference of the
entire group. Thus, each
coin in the Index carries equal weight. Let's call this result the
Current Month Index, or CMI.
The previous month's Index score is multiplied by the CMI to arrive at
an updated Index score.
How should I interpret the Index score?
You should interpret the Index score as a
percent change in value collectively of the 87 coins
that comprise the
which were chosen to represent the rare U.S. coin market as a whole.
The Index begins in January 2000 at a baseline score of 100. Since, for
example, the Index reached 200 in September 2004, you could say overall
prices of rare U.S. coins doubled over that 4.75 year period. In July
2017, the Index stands at 394.81, indicating the rare coin
about 3.95 times higher than it was in January 2000. From 2009 to 2015,
the Index moved sideways and up a little, a far cry
from what we saw
from 2003 to 2009, but still positive, and performed decidedly higher
ending the year at an all time high. 2017 so far has been stable, but
down a tad.
Where does the value data come from?
We obtain coin values to input into the Index
computation from a variety of widely respected coin price guides.
How were the 87 coins in the Index chosen?
Our objective was to choose a cross section of
coins whose value fluctuations represented that of the overall market
for rare United States coins. We focused on key dates the serious
collector of average to above average means commonly aspires to own.
The vast majority of coins tracked in the Index are in circulated
grades, typical of
the examples residing within the holdings of the rank and file
collector. There are no ultra rarieties in the Index.
Which coins were chosen for the Index?
Meet the 87 coins that comprise the Rare Coin