The Rare Coin Values Index follows the percent
change movements of 87 carefully selected United
States coins. The purpose of the Index is to assess the overall
direction of the U.S.
rare coin market over a period beginning in January 2000 to the current
Rare Coin Values Index: Since Year 2000
The chart above graphs the combined percent change in retail
for 87 rare United States coins since
January 2000, starting at an index baseline of 100. The purpose of the
Index is to estimate the direction and strength of the market for rare
United States coins. The coin market was strong from 2003-09, reaching
its peak in March and April 2009 at an index rating of 370.51. The
Index stumbled a bit in 2009-10, but battled back in 2011-12 and again
in 2014 to barely eclipse previous highs. The year 2015 was a slight
downer, while 2016 was an UP year. The first half of 2017 was
lackluster, but as we head toward EOY, the Index has moved once again
into record territory, finally breaching the 400 point level in
November. See chart below for
up of Index movements over the last 12 months.
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The next Rare Coin Values Index chart focuses on
last 12 months. It is generated from the same body of data as the
chart above, except it's "blown up" to give the reader a closer view of
the most recent coin market activity.
Rare Coin Values Index: Over Last 12 Months
chart is a close up of the most recent 12 months of Rare Coin Values
Index activity. The Index had been moving along in a very narrow band
from the end of 2016 and into the summer of 2017, but that changed in
September 2017, when the Index jumped 3.86 points to tease the 400
point level. That milestone was finally crossed in November, as the
Index added 2.06 points, closing at 400.79.
The Rare Coin Value Index
is based on the combined percent
change in retail prices for 87 rare United States
coins and is updated monthly.
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How is the Index calculated?
Once a month, for each coin in the Index, the
current retail value is
estimated and compared to the previous month's estimated value, and a
percent difference is computed (it could be positve, negative, or no
change). The percent difference for all 87 coins are added together and
divided by 87 to come up with an average percent difference of the
entire group. Thus, each
coin in the Index carries equal weight. Let's call this result the
Current Month Index, or CMI.
The previous month's Index score is multiplied by (1+CMI) to arrive at
an updated Index score.
How should I interpret the Index score?
You should interpret the Index score as a
percent change in value collectively of the 87 coins
that comprise the
which were chosen to represent the rare U.S. coin market as a whole.
The Index begins in January 2000 at a baseline score of 100. Since, for
example, the Index reached 200 in September 2004, you could say overall
prices of rare U.S. coins doubled over that 4.75 year period. In
2017, the Index stands at 400.79, indicating the rare coin
about 4.01 times higher than it was in January 2000. From 2009 to 2015,
the Index moved sideways and up a little, a far cry
from what we saw
from 2003 to 2009, but still positive, and performed decidedly higher
ending the year at an all time high. 2017 so far has been stable,
finally moving upward in Q3 and Q4.
Where does the value data come from?
We obtain coin values to input into the Index
computation from a variety of widely respected coin price guides.
How were the 87 coins in the Index chosen?
Our objective was to choose a cross section of
coins whose value fluctuations represented that of the overall market
for rare United States coins. We focused on key dates the serious
collector of average to above average means commonly aspires to own.
The vast majority of coins tracked in the Index are in circulated
grades, typical of
the examples residing within the holdings of the rank and file
collector. There are no ultra rarieties in the Index.
Which coins were chosen for the Index?
Meet the 87 coins that comprise the Rare Coin