Prophetic glimpse into the future, as viewed from the year 1998.
Veteran numismatist Scott Travers, in 1998, dusted off his crystal ball and
fashioned a roster of 88 coins. 44 of them he called WINNERS, and the
remaining 44 were labeled LOSERS. Travers then explained why the
WINNERS were destined for solid future value growth, and conversely, why the
LOSERS possessed poor investment potential. In 2004, I randomly
selected 20 of the 88 to test Travers' prognostication prowess. In
hindsight, he nailed it fairly well. See review below for the details
of the sample study. There are lots of USED copies available on
Amazon. I picked up my copy for a cheap song, but the Top 88
is worth far more than that.
"Coin dealer and award winning author, Scott
A. Travers, identifies 88 coins that either are good values at current
market levels or should be avoided. Historical background for each of
the 44 winners and 44 losers before detailing why each could be a best buy -
or major migraine. 135 pages,
softbound."
Market performance and price is the tipping point for being "good" or
"bad" The good coins (the WINNERS) represent wise purchases,
especially if investment potential is the objective. The "bad" coins
(the LOSERS) are... well, you can probably guess.
The title is a misnomer. I assumed the
book hit upon 88 favorable (as in TOP) coins. I was wrong. 44
coins are designated as "WINNERS" and 44 are "LOSERS". This benign
deception does not accrue any demerits in this review, but I'm still
scratching my head trying to figure out how 44 "LOSERS" qualify in a "TOP"
list of any kind.
Some of the 88 coins are actually groups of coins. Examples are WWII
nickels, Type II gold dollars, and generic high grade Morgan silver
dollars. Thus, many more than just 88 coins are tossed in to the
WINNER and LOSER buckets.
About one page dedicated per coin. The coin's genesis concisely
place in historical perspective.
Travers reasons in a paragraph or two why each of the 88 are categorized
as they are.
This book was published in 1998. I randomly selected 10 WINNERS and
10 LOSERS from the club of 88, and evaluated price trends since 1998, for
the purpose of determining if Travers is a prophet of profit, or could you and I
have done as well with a Quija board. Here are the results (the
compounded rates are my computations, utilizing the
Coin
Rate of Return Calculator).
WINNER Sample
1998
2004
Compounded Annual Rate of Return
1926-S Buffalo nickel MS-64
$3000
$15000
25.84%
1893 Isabella Commemorative Quarter MS-65
$2000
$3000
5.96%
Trade Dollars graded PR-64 or PR-65
$2500
$6000
13.32%
$5500
$12000
11.78%
1912-S Liberty Head nickel (VF condition shown here)
$100
$500
25.84%
1885-CC Morgan silver dollar MS-65
$500
$1000
10.40%
1909-S Lincoln cent XF or better (XF condition shown
here)
1887/6 Morgan silver dollar MS-64 or higher (MS-64
and MS-65 shown here)
$900
$1200
4.19%
$3000
$4500
5.96%
War Nickels PR-67
$350
$300
-2.10%
1931-S Lincoln cent MS-65
$200
$200
0.00%
Common date St. Gaudens double eagle MS-66 or MS-67
(MS-66 shown here)
$2200
$3000
4.53%
1842-C small date half eagle XF-45
$42500
$40000
-0.90%
1914 quarter eagle MS-62
$1400
$2000
5.22%
AVERAGE COMPOUNDED % ROR
2.23%
In retrospect, Travers was much more accurate in his predictions than
not. Between 1998 and 2004, the WINNERS grew at an annual
compounded rate of 14.64%. This compares very favorably to the
LOSERS annual compounded rate of 2.23%.
Are we likely to see a future reversal of
fortunes between the WINNERS and LOSERS? Possibly, but Travers
founded his predictions on sound logic and experience. What
represents a good value today is likely to represent the same tomorrow.
On the basis of Travers' proven accuracy where so many have failed, I
just elevated the Content Rating for 88 Coins to Five Stars.
Jumping from one coin to the next, I stumbled on quite a few interesting,
but unrelated, anecdotes. For instance, page 67 describes how the Buffalo
on a few 1937-D nickels lost his leg. On page 66, we learn why the
word CENTS was omitted from the 1883 Liberty Head nickel. This
comment is not a criticism of the book, but typifies how the book is
structured.
The Table of Contents lists the 88 coins, but
the reader doesn't know if a coin is deemed a "WINNER" or a "LOSER".
"WINNER No. 1" is the lead-off batter. On deck
is "LOSER No. 1". All 88 coins appear in alternating sequence,
good... bad... good... bad, etc.
Most coins represented by enlarged black and white photos. The
quality is OK, but I've seen better (and worse, too).
No index! There are many subjects addressed throughout the book. Had
there been an index to thumb through, I could have quickly honed in on
topics of high interest to me. As it is, the reader has no idea what
tasty morsels lurk hidden within these pages, at least not without reading
the book from cover to cover.
The book is very fluid and a delight to
peruse. The entire thing can be read in a single evening.
