One day back in 1985, I
received an unexpected phone call at my office from a man named Gordon Carl (not
his real name – but whose real name I’ll never forget). The thing that
initially struck me the most about the polished Mr. Carl was his heavy New York
accent, like something you might hear in a gangster movie. The purpose of his
call: to offer me a “great deal” in rare coins.
As a result of that
conversation, I agreed to purchase five 1943
Walking Liberty half dollars Mr.
Carl described as MS-65 specimens. Furthermore, he guaranteed that his firm
would buy the coins back from me at any time of my choosing, paying 5% less than
the “Grey Sheet” bid price. As an unmarried “yuppie” (now there’s a word you
don’t hear much anymore), I calculated that I could afford the $1375 required to
make the purchase. Perhaps more than anything, greed clouded my judgment, and
like a fool, I trusted Mr. Carl and dropped a check in the mail the next day.
Later
in 1985, Mr. Carl’s company changed names. Rather than interpreting this as a
flashing red warning signal, I eagerly sought to add more coins to my
portfolio. Being a gregarious sort of fellow, I attempted to establish a
friendly rapport with Mr. Carl and his associates. Looking back after all these
years, what has irritated me perhaps more than anything is how this shyster must
have smirked every time he heard my voice, for what a gullible, willing dupe I was.
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Here is a very amateurish photo of one of the
offending Walking Liberty half dollars. Little did I know at the time I
marked "50 cents" on the flip label, that not only was I noting the denomination
of the coin, sadly, I was also indicating the approximate value of the coin!
(okay, so maybe I'm exaggerating about how little the coin is worth, but since
it was nearly a total loss for me, the coin might as well be worth nothing more
than face value.) |
In 1989,
I decided it was time to cash in my coins, so I called Mr. Carl. Not
surprisingly, the company was operating under yet another name. I couldn’t get
through to Mr. Carl, but ended up talking to his brother, Maurice, with whom I
had never spoken. I informed him that I wanted to liquidate my Walking Liberty
half dollars in accordance with the buy-back policy under which I had purchased
them. Much to my disgust, he coldly declined, indicating his organization was
not affiliated with those earlier companies, and was under no obligation
whatsoever. In fact, he insinuated that he had never even heard of these
outfits before, despite the fact that his brother, Gordon, factored prominently
in these businesses. At that moment, the fog was finally lifted from my eyes: I
had been scammed! Not knowing what else to do, I politely said goodbye, and
hung up. I sat there, staring at the phone for what seemed like an eternity, in
stunned disbelief.
Several
days later, I took my 1943 Walkers to a local coin dealer, the first step in
submitting them to a third party grading service. I didn’t expect them to grade
out as MS-65, but if they came back as MS-60 or MS-63, I could at least begin
there to cut my losses. The dealer studied a couple of the coins closely under
magnification, and then sadly declared the coins were damaged due to improper
cleaning. He advised me not to have them professionally graded, because the
cost of grading probably exceeded the value of the coins. With few options
left, I put the tainted Walkers in storage, vowing never to repeat this
experience.
Let’s
now flash forward to the present time. Normally, I don’t like antagonizing
myself, so it was with some reluctance that I fired up the computer to play the
game “What If?” That is, what if I had spent my $1375 with a reputable dealer
in 1985 to purchase Walking Liberty half dollars? What kind of value increases
would I be enjoying today had I been smarter back then? To answer this
question, I first retrieved the
historic value trend tables I researched in late
2005 for Walking Liberty
half dollars. For each date, mintmark, and condition, I noted their values in
1985, and placed them next to their corresponding values in 2005, for a “before
and after” comparison. In all, there were about 450 such comparisons. Next, I
calculated an annual compounded percentage return rate for each data pair, and
sorted them from highest to lowest. I then listed the top 20 for closer
examination:
|
Date |
Condition |
1985 Value |
2005 Value |
Annual % ROR |
| 1917-D
Obv |
MS-65 |
$3000 |
$27500 |
11.13% |
|
1921-S |
F-12 |
$30.00 |
$250 |
10.62% |
|
1919-D |
MS-65 |
$15000 |
$115000 |
10.19% |
| 1917-S
Obv |
MS-65 |
$5250 |
$35000 |
9.45% |
|
1918-S |
MS-65 |
$3000 |
$17500 |
8.76% |
|
1916-S |
VG-8 |
$30.00 |
$150 |
7.97% |
| 1917-S
Rev |
MS-65 |
$3500 |
$17500 |
7.97% |
|
1921-S |
VF-20 |
$200 |
$1000 |
7.97% |
|
1921-S |
XF-40 |
$1000 |
$5000 |
7.97% |
|
1921-S |
MS-65 |
$22500 |
$110000 |
7.85% |
|
1918-D |
F-12 |
$8.50 |
$40.00 |
7.65% |
|
1918-D |
MS-65 |
$5500 |
$25000 |
7.48% |
|
1921-S |
VG-8 |
$17.50 |
$75.00 |
7.18% |
|
1921-D |
MS-65 |
$6500 |
$27500 |
7.11% |
|
1916-D |
VG-8 |
$12.50 |
$50.00 |
6.82% |
|
1938-D |
F-12 |
$25.00 |
$100 |
6.82% |
|
1938-D |
VG-8 |
$20.00 |
$80.00 |
6.82% |
|
1920-S |
MS-65 |
$3750 |
$15000 |
6.82% |
| 1917-D
Rev |
VF-20 |
$45.00 |
$175 |
6.68% |
|
1938-D |
VF-20 |
$32.50 |
$125 |
6.62% |
The
Walker with the best return since 1985 is the 1917-D (MM on Obverse) in MS-65
condition. At $3000, it was well beyond the $1375 available to me to spend on
numismatics in 1985, as were all nine MS-65 coins appearing on the above Top 20
list. However, the remainder of the Top 20 represented coins in circulated
grades, and all were within my price range. Had I directed my hard-earned cash
toward the purchase of a legitimate example of each of these coins, I would have
spent $1421, just barely above what I forked over to Mr. Carl. Today, those
same Walking Liberty halves are cumulatively worth more than $7000. In pure
financial terms, this increase computes to an annual compounded return rate of
nearly 8.00%. If only I had known then…
Take
note that all 11 of the Walkers that I wish I had added to my collection in 1985
are recognized as key and semi-key dates in the Walking Liberty half dollar
series. The fact that they are for well-circulated specimens (typically not the
object of affection for promoters and speculators) suggests that what has
propelled these coins to ever-increasing heights over the years is fueled by
consistent collector demand. We can expect to see similar patterns in the
future. If I were to conduct this same study in the year 2025, comparing retail
values then to what they were in the year 2005, the Top 20 would probably
strongly resemble the Top 20 in 2005.
What
became of the 1943 Walking Liberty half dollars Mr. Carl suckered me into
buying? Well, I still have them, squirreled away in a bank deposit box. I
haven’t even looked at them in a decade or so. As I was writing the final words
of this article, it finally dawned on me to ask one more question: how would my
investment have performed had these been bona-fide MS-65 specimens? Taking the
same body of data used to derive the Top 20 above, I started thumbing down the
list… going down, down, and down some more. Finally, I came across the 1943 in
MS-65 condition, on line 419. The annual rate of return of this coin since 1985
is a dismal -2.13%. That’s a NEGATIVE 2.13%. Ironically, even had Mr. Carl
been an honest businessman, it still would have been a lousy investment for me.
There
are two lessons to be learned here: (1) If interested in seeing your coins
increase substantially in value in the years ahead, purchase coins that have
already demonstrated a long record of consistent price advancements, which
usually are the key and semi-key dates for a given series, and (2) Deal only
with reputable people.
So what
ever happened to the slimy Mr. Carl and his band of thieves? Well, perhaps
there is some justice in this world, after all. In late 1989, about the time I
discovered I was being victimized, the United States Postal Inspection Service
began an undercover sting operation of the company. Apparently, I wasn’t the
only unhappy customer, but my losses were minimal compared to the sums bilked
out of others. In February, 1991, postal agents stormed the “boiler room”
outfit, executing a federal search warrant based on a complaint involving the
alleged fraudulent selling of coins through the mail. Mr. Carl and others were
arrested and led away in handcuffs.
Postal
authorities publicized that anyone with grievances against the company was
encouraged to contact them, to help bolster their case against the defendants.
Since I kept meticulous records, I had no trouble assembling incriminating
documents and forwarded everything to the Inspector’s office, tied together by
my personal story. I never heard exactly how the case was resolved, but it
seems almost certain these crooked telemarketers got what they deserved. As for
me, I won a small measure of satisfaction, knowing that I provided evidence to
help expose them. Now, if I could just figure out what to do with those defiled
1943 Walkers...
About the Author: Daniel J.
Goevert is the webmaster of
US Coin Values Advisor, specializing in coin value trends and listing
bullish US coins. The site also includes detailed coin collecting advice and an
illustrated history of the US Mint.
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